Ubuntu’s Death Rattle
Having just posted my thoughts on the Dell/Linux sham, it hit me… This must be the sound of Ubuntu’s death rattle.
Having failed to turn a profit year after year, Canonical/Ubuntu has put all of its remaining energy into this deal: from the website re-design with the focus on Dell, to the recent video/talk marketing efforts made by Mr. Shuttleworth.
I _would_ say that all the eggs have been placed into the same basket, but if you look at the past, you quickly realize the rest of the eggs have already been broken and this is a last effort attempt to save a sinking ship.
Since the beginning, Canonical/Ubuntu has been burning millions per year, without seeing any returns — even with a userbase of 2-6 million, and a deployment on 4-16 million systems. And this Dell move is supposed to turn things around?…
Do the numbers:
Dell’s expected sales are at 20,000 systems per year. Who and how many are going to shell out $65 for 30-days worth of support? Zero. Maybe, at best, less than 1%. Same logic applies to the more expensive, yearly, support contracts.
This Dell deal is a joke that’s going sell a handful of systems and net Canonical a few more contracts, relatively worth pennies. Pushing Linux on the average Joe [who is just going to ship the system back] will also backfire. I mean, who else is going to buy these systems? The fanboys that started this mess in the first place? Don’t make me laugh!
And for Ubuntu, after Dell, where is there to go from here but down?
It almost sounds as if this deal was set up to fail from the beginning. If Microsoft is behind this move, they have done a good job of pulling the strings. It’s a sad day today.
As far as I’m concerned he is playing devils advocate, which is required to bring some people back to reality.
As with everything its speculation, and until it happens we wont know.
But if you don’t want it to happen the way he suggests, stop arguing and actual support the product you love so much.
So you, someone not working at Canonical, knows the total budget?
I only use figures that Shuttleworth has talked about.
It is shear fantasy to think that anyone who isn’t already seriously enamored of Ubuntu Linux will order a Dell with that option. Most people I know don’t know what linux is and don’t want to know, judging by their reactions when I try to talk about it.
Gradually, I hereby predict, that will change. And I suspect that Shuttleworth will still be in the game when the tides turn.
To the people saying Canonical will make their money from selling support to businesses, you need to get your head out of your ass. RHEL and SLED are better products then Feisty of Dapper LTS. Novell and Red Hat have more employees and are focused on the enterprise market. Canonical is way, way behind.
Thank you for posting that… When someone tells you you’re wrong, so many times over, you start to believe it!
There is a very slim chance for Canonical to place itself and Ubuntu into the Server market. The notion that Red Hat, and to some extent Novell, can be displaced by Canonical/Ubuntu is so ludicrous I do not even know where to start. It would be a massive undertaking.
Again, from what I have seen from Canonical/Ubuntu, this move has been abandoned and the market they are looking for is the corporate desktop… Which would also make perfect sense as that would eventually be a logical progress to the server market [and the only way out from the zero-profit, all loss, home desktop market].
The importance of the Dell deal is so profound that you cannot even imagine it.
It’s not about the exact amount of money earned from it, it is about the very principle. We have a big brand for the first time recognizing the demand for a Linux based line. If Dell makes a buck on this one, you can bet that HP, Toshiba and others will follow suit very soon.
Canonical doesn’t need to make money from support contracts with the end users, though it is an option. Dell needs training for their helpdesk, they need to have fall-back when that helpdesk can’t fix something. Imagine that more vendors need this kind of support?
There are no guarantees that this will succeed, though it is a good thing.
“The notion that Red Hat, and to some extent Novell, can be displaced by Canonical/Ubuntu is so ludicrous I do not even know where to start.”
Funny, that’s what was said about the Linux Desktop 3 years ago, yet Ubuntu seems to be #1 there.
Yes, it needs work before being a server-distro, but not that much to make it such a big leap.
There are no guarantees that this will succeed, though it is a good thing.
It is only a good thing if it does succeed, no one will argue with that. Otherwise, it will be a complete disaster as it will spell out that there is no market for Linux through an OEM, among other things.
Funny, that’s what was said about the Linux Desktop 3 years ago, yet Ubuntu seems to be #1 there.
One Linux desktop distribution displacing another Linux desktop distribution is nothing new. As a matter of fact, this usually happens every 3 years or so…
Just look at the latest distrowatch stats. PCLinuxOS has taken the lead over Ubuntu this past month.
“It is only a good thing if it does succeed, no one will argue with that. Otherwise, it will be a complete disaster as it will spell out that there is no market for Linux through an OEM, among other things.”
If it fails, it will be no worse then today.
“One Linux desktop distribution displacing another Linux desktop distribution is nothing new. As a matter of fact, this usually happens every 3 years or so…”
It’s not new, though RedHat and SuSE have maintained a majority position amongst home users for years before that. They no longer do today.
If it fails, it will be no worse then today.
I disagree. If it fails, it will set Linux in general back a few years and tarnish it’s usability for the home market.
On the contrary, everything happening now is Microsoft’s death rattle.
Vista has bombed, so badly that Dell has been forced to resurrect XP and explore Ubuntu; the Open Source movement is accelerating and gaining more adherents (hey, Java is now Open Source!); Microsoft’s patent FUD is universally recognised for what it is; Ubuntu has created the first idiot-proof desktop Linux and has therefore catapulted to the top of the Linux distros by popularity; and so on.
I think you’re diagnosing the wrong patient. This one’s just fine.
admin: “I disagree. It will set Linux in general back a few years and tarnish it’s usability for the home market.”
This blog goes something like this:
1) The author (admin) comes up with the ridiculous proposition that because Ubuntu has won a big preload contract with one of the big 3 OEMs, which will lead to paid commercial support contracts for Canonical, Ubuntu is in it’s “death rattle”
2) When posters post rational arguments as to why this is ridiculous, admin’s response is basically “you can think what you like, I disagree, I am right”.
Napolean Bonepart had a supporter with an attitude like this, a certain Nicolas Chauvin.
It is time to use Fedora again, it is the FREE counterpart to RHEL, RHEL 5 got high marks and Fedora 7 should also get high marks. I use FC6 and MAC, I won’t be going back to Windoze anytime soon! The best way to get Linux into more non computer programmers hands is to
have an AMERICAN counterpart to the UK’s Linux Format, a magazine that’s 8 to 10 dollars with a free DVD attached with a distro flavor of the month AND to make Linux more known in schools so it is HIP to use Linux instead of Windoze. It is time for a MAJOR Linux revolution, dumping Windoze once and for all and CELEBRATE Linux and MAC! :D
Are you eating crow yet? Dell is doing so well, that… HP jumped in.
HP jumped in with what? They have been selling Linux systems since at least 2004, and probably before even that.
Just about every OEM has sold Linux PCs in the past, this is nothing new nor earth shattering…
I’ve been seeing these *insert some random OEM here* embracing Linux, incredible news, fantastic models… posts all over the place. Too bad no one even bothers to do the slightest bit of research. Old news being rehashed as new. New models replacing the old.
And Dell doing so well? Right!
You’ll save $15 on their latest offering by getting Ubuntu.
That must be also why they feel the need to hide the Ubuntu systems on their web-site, and tell users to go get a Windows system on the dell.com/open page.
Google trends does not even list the US in the top ten regions that the term “Linux” is searched for, yet Dell is only currently selling in the US.
Dell to offer Ubuntu on more systems
http://www.desktoplinux.com/news/NS6756576859.html
From a Dell insider. Not someone shooting from the hips!
“Thanks, Steven for that great roundup of our new Inspiron products with Linux. I have some additional news to share! We are planning to expand our desktop and notebook Linux program outside of the United States. I can’t share any details right now, but stay tuned for more information in the coming weeks.
Jo Øiongen: On sales figures, the folks upstairs won’t let me share that data. I will say there has been positive response from the community. To that we tip our hats and say, “Thank You for your support!” to Linux community. We think it is extremely important to continue to support the Linux community!”
HP to ship Ubuntu PCs, serious about Linux
http://www.tectonic.co.za/view.php?src=rss&id=595
NOW GO EAT CROW! no rebutal needed…
Dell to offer Ubuntu on more systems…
I though I covered this in the above post? They put one more model out, that saves you a whooping $15. What does this prove besides my own point?
From a Dell insider. Not someone shooting from the hips!
Nothing new in that “insider quote.” We know they “support” [what else are they supposed to say?] the Linux community and will also sell PCs outside the US. Why do you think I said “currently” in the above post?
HP to ship Ubuntu PCs, serious about Linux…
The date on the article is 9 September, 2005
Again, I’ve covered this and the rest in the above post. OEMs have been selling Linux PCs for years. Probably before you even knew what Linux was. Nothing new here. Even Wal-Mart was selling Linspire PCs or laptops in 2004.
Perhaps you should slow down, read a bit, and when you have something with a bit more substance… come back.
This post made me laugh several times. I don’t think you are correct Admin. Although in this world anything can happen, your analysis is rather weak. Ubuntu is moving fast from being little known distribution to a very well known one. There is no reason for it to collapse now(or rather for Mark to cut the funding, except for his personal reasons meaning that he has some problems with his life). Your analysis applies more to the opposite case of a product having a large portion of the market once and then losing it. I think there is a big possibility for Windows to end up down that road, so maybe all you’ll have to do is to change Ubuntu to Windows in your title and repost your blog in couple of years(or maybe sooner).
Speaking of Windows, if it was a decent product I’d never switch. Why would one. Think about it. Indeed switching and learning something new is a pain in the ass, and if you are happy with what you have, why do it? Well, guess what? Windows is far from being a well written OS. Microsoft’s spirituality is rather sick. All they care about is $ and trust me, there are a lot of ppl denying them in $ now. I am not a crazy fanatic, and I use windows when I have to or when there is no point to switch(like right now I am at work, co-op term, will be done in a month here anyways). But what a sh..ty OS it is. I can’t believe M$ spend so much money and many years to create a piece of sh..t.
Just look at the amount of viruses written for it. In my opinion viruses are indication of flaws in OS. Flawless OS should have no viruses. And if OS has a flaw, the flaw should be fixed, not another third party program costing money should be run on top of it. Do you run anti virus on your windows machine, Admin? Don’t you think you got cheated? Don’t you think M$ should fix the holes in its product instead of letting a third party rip you off your money. Look at linux. Those guys do it right. The only need for antivirus on linux is so other windows machines don’t get infected through linux boxes(most viruses can’t do much harm on linux, but they might get spread though through it). I got really sick of dealing with Windows, running antivirus, dealing with malware, slowdowns, etc, etc. Ubuntu is such a break from all that nonsense.
Oh yeah, and what’s up with an average Joe? You know, Windows succeeded because they wrote an OS for an average Joe in the first place. That was a great idea and I am thankful for that. 10-15 years ago that was really good. But yeah, 10-15 years ago!!! Today’s society is way ahead of an average Joe 15 years ago. An OS for fools is not so popular anymore. That’s where windows is failing big time. They still treat us as stupid Joes knowing nothing about computers, OSes, etc.
Well, there are numerous examples of how Windows is not keeping ppl happy. Vista is another failure. You should prey that Ubuntu or Linux in general succeed otherwise you’ll get stuck forever with this M$ BS. You’ll get stuck, not me.
Back to Ubuntu. I had to dual boot for about a year before. But for a last year or so I strictly boot into Ubuntu. Yes, it became so usable and really the first reason I had to dual boot was software(games) support. But that’s the problem with program developers, not the OS. Now I can watch movies, play games, write documents, well, pretty much anything I need. Things are not always smooth and if I need something extra, sometimes I need to work for it. But I don’t think “average Joe” will need many extra things. If he does, he is probably not an average Joe. Did I mention that I don’t have any anti viruses. Did I mention that the OS is stable as a brick. Did I mention that I get system updates every day or 2.Well, enough said here. Oh, and I can get many software for free with add/remove or synaptic package manager. Not bad, eh, considering that M$ Office and other programs cost quite a bit.
By the way, there are many companies in Canada that use or develop products on/for Linux and other open source programs. Even here where I work now and use Windows on my desktop, we use OpenOffice and open source wincvs. Some people here use linux, and I would too, if I stayed here for long.
By the way, I did donate to Ubuntu 20$. Another source of money for Ubuntu.
So, I suggest for you not to worry about Ubuntu. It is indeed doing pretty well so far. Better worry about Windows and how you’ll have to switch soon away from it. I know you are not gonna like it, but if things go that way, you should prepare yourself to be part of Linux user base. Unless you like dealing with all the BS windows is putting you through…….
It’s a little hard to tell who the initial post (”Ubuntu’s Death Rattle”, May 24, 07) is from, so this post is for whomever that is.
As a Linux Noobe, let me add my $0.02.
I’ve been playing around with Linux now for about a year. My ultimate goal is to eliminate MICRO$OFT from my life, completely. That’s all. I have played with a variety of Linux distributions, actually quite a variety, and UBUNTU is the one I keep gravitating back to. I have even asked my self why? The answer is not that Ubuntu is the “best” distro, or that I have learned enough about Linux to make a technical decision, the answer is very basic.
I don’t yet know enough about Linux to fully understand why I keep returning to Ubuntu, but I can tell you this – Ubuntu has a “flavor” about it that, IMHO, makes it the most likely candidate to fill the need as a complete substitute for Windo$e. It nearly flawlessly installs – right up there in “ease” with Windo$e itself, and all the applications needed for “general” use are readily available if not already installed at the completion of the install. Of course, I am sure I am not saying anything new to Linux aficionados, but remember, I am a noobe, and I’m learning a lot of “new” things about Linux as I experiment with each distro. I now have Ubunutu installed on a desktop and a laptop at home and I am very happy with it’s operation and with its available aps. When WinXP is no longer supported, I intend to have ALL my home machines running Linux, and right now, I think that will be Ubuntu.
I don’t know how Mr. Shuttlesworth plans on making money with Ubuntu, or how long he intends to support it, but if others like me are out there experimenting, I know enough about this to say that others, many others, must be finding the same thing I am – that Ubuntu “just works” and that is very important in the mass-market OS world, again, IMHO. Clearly if I have to, I will move to another distro. That is not the issue to me. The issue for me is this: I don’t want to give Bill Gates another dime for an OS. Period. I’m tired of paying him again and again as he “improves” his OS. I will not be upgrading any system I own to “Vista” or any other future Micro$oft OS.
In conclusion, I see Ubuntu as very strong in the Linux OS “market” and I have a very favorable impression of it. Rather than seeing the Dell/Ubuntu deal as a “joke” I see it as a major coup. What other Linux distro will see distribution like Ubuntu will see with Linux? Sun won’t, Fedora won’t, PC Linux won’t. Not even Red Hat will see the in-place share Ubuntu will. Have you taken a look at the used PC/Laptop market? Guess which brand the used market consists most of? It’s Dell. Guess what Linux distro will be be the “biggest” in that market in the not-too-distant future? It will be Ubuntu.
Well, I’ve rambled enough here. I’m not sure I made any significant contribution to this topic, but I felt compelled to add my thoughts.
Billu
Fuck this guy and his stupid FUD.
Linux rules, M$ sucks!
Linux is gaining market share every day… with newer users, doesn’t matter if is Slackware, Gentoo or Ubuntu, Linux is everywhere these days… and I wouldn’t call Linux a failure, ever.
I would call Vista a failure and M$ fucking SUCKS.
Linux forever and ever!
admin == M$ toy
You wrote this article just about a month ago now… and I was reading through the comments, and how badly people battered you, insulted you and said all these bad things. I’m not that kind of guy… I’ve commented before (nicely) and you replied back (nicely was well). However, now that Ubuntu 8.04 LTS (hardy heron) is out, and there’s more talk about ubuntu, linux everywhere, and more more and computer companies are embracing linux, esp. after EEEPC, I wanted to know where you stand today. Also one more thing… you mentioned ubuntu dying and PCLinuxOS has taken number one on Distrowatch, well, again i cannot predict the future and say you’re wrong, however, it doesn’t look like ubuntu has died just yet, and the deal with Dell is still on. Just wanted to see what your thoughts are now. and finally though this doesn’t prove anything, it’s interesting to see the rise of ubuntu:
all years:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=ubuntu%2C+windows+xp%2C+windows+vista%2C+redhat%2C+suse&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
last 12 months
http://www.google.com/trends?q=ubuntu%2C+windows+xp%2C+windows+vista%2C+redhat%2C+suse&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0
I’m still around, in the shadows looking out.
I’ve been working on a few ventures of mine that have unfortunately prevented myself from having the time to dedicate to this blog and my everlasting pursuit for the truth.
On that note, my views have not changed radically since I made this blog post a year ago.
I believe that Linux and Windows cater to two different types of people and businesses. There is some overlap, and there are plenty of examples of this, but overall they are different beasts. In architecture, function, and usability.
The aspect I dislike most about Linux is the blind fanaticism involved [and what it creates]…
1. The constant insults thrown towards Microsoft and their products by people that have never even used the products they are bashing. People that have no clue about the verbal and cerebral diarrhea they are regurgitating.
2. This notion of good vs evil. Google good. Microsoft evil. Why? Just because!
3. The lies, dam lies, and more lies that are now standard procedure for marketing your product in comparison to an MS product.
The number #3 point is a good one. The example is Firefox. It has become a bloated, unusable, unsecured POS of a browser.
IE 7 is an improvement over IE6 and Firefox in every way imaginable. So what does the Firefox team do [or who ever it was on the dev team]? They come out with pure BS benchmarks not just once, but twice in a row, to show how much worse IE is. The problem was these benchmark were not just done bad. They were soo far off, and so much information was not provided, that there is no way they were not rigged. Rigged from the start and covered up with open-source fanaticism and saran wrap. It was sick to see this. What was it? Something like ‘lets open up 30 tabs in Firefox under one instance, and compare that to 30 IE instances/windows, and lets only compare the 1st half second on RAM usage, and lets open the 30 IE Windows as fast as we can so we can say the system crashed.’… or something along those lines.
Linux is it’s worst enemy in this regard. It will tarnish itself in the process.
My outlook on Linux is gloom at best. I don’t want much to do with it except on the server-side where you actually deal with businesses, and not inexperienced fanboys and Ubuntu.
In the mean time I’ll use the OS I’m most productive in, Windows.
Well, I had my doubts before, but now I know for sure you’re a MS fanboy! I was trying to be real and not talk like a Linux fanboy (which I’m not), but you’re saying really unrealistic things now.
‘The constant insults thrown towards Microsoft and their products by people that have never even used the products they are bashing’
That’s what a Linux fanboy is supposed to say… coz there’s waaaaaaaay more chance that someone has used a Windows software compared to a Linux product. They used the Microsoft product and did not like it, and now they have seen that there are better options out there.
‘This notion of good vs evil. Google good. Microsoft evil. Why? Just because!’
No, not just because! Because of Microsoft’s monopolistic nature, overpriced products and unstable and unreliable products that we are forced to buy. I don’t have to fill you up on the whole Vista vs. XP thing. Even the Windows user don’t want Vista, but Microsoft keeps trying to throw it at them…!
‘The number #3 point is a good one. The example is Firefox. It has become a bloated, unusable, unsecured POS of a browser. IE 7 is an improvement over IE6 and Firefox in every way imaginable. ‘
Are you effin kidding me.. I mean, I agree IE7 is an improvement over IE6, but seriously? Firefox? I haven’t heard that from even a person who used to work with Microsoft (Student Partner), Firefox must have been bloated than before, but IE7 better than Firefox???? You really are a fanboy…
I could type a lot more things, but I know there’s no convincing you… Until you realize this on your own… there’s no point in trying to convince you… all i gotta say is get your facts straight…
xubean, everything I’ve said is right on spot.
#1. You are bashing MS products without providing any facts or reasons, you do not even identify the products and issues involved. Unstable, unreliable, overpriced products? Right. Windows has worked for me flawlessly since Win2k. Let Linux and Linux applications get 1 billion users and see what kind of a mess it will all be.
#2. Google is a business. A “for profit” business. They have stockholders. Do you understand? They are no different from Microsoft. Know what they do? How they make money? They sell AD space. Is this supposed to be noble?
#3. I provide you with an example with facts and you say ‘must be a fanboy.’ Goes right to the fanaticism point.
LOL great minds must blog alike! I was reflecting on the passage of time and how it has treated Ubuntu and MSFT, and thought I would revisit this blog post I posted to a year ago.
And here we have the author back again!
Very cool!
I couldn’t agree more with the authors 2008 position redux, particularly on the deranged Linux/Ubuntu NON-OPEN fundamentalist mentality, it’s worse if anything a year on.
I run Ubuntu 8.04, Sabayon 3.4 E x64, Win Svr 2008 x64, Vista Ultimate x32 and x64. And of course at work, Windows XP Pro is the only workable option at this time (can’t wait to hear what the fanatics say to this – but then again, the vast majority of them don’t actually work a W2 job for a living yet).
At work we run Oracle 10g on Win Svr 2003 and on Red Hat 5 EE.
So, while it may make no difference, I do have the experience of actually USING ALL THESE OSs to help inform my opinion.
My opinion has not changed either. It is still not possible for many people, and no I am not posting the list of Laptop models in question, read your own documentation and that should be enough, with a 1.5 year old or less laptop to install Ubuntu 8.04 and have wireless work out of the box. And g-d forbid you uninstall the wrong package and the dependency chain renders the OS permanently unusable.
I like Linux. I like working in a non-Microsoft tooling and server stack environment. I like using MSFT development technology and tools – they are unbeaten on that score, period (yes, Eclipse is wonderful, but not as wonderful a total package).
MSFT applications and tools are NOT MSFT “the business” or “the marketing organization”, both of which I have to be honest disgust me so much I have to rename everything on my Start and fly out menus to remove the word “Microsoft” from every shortcut! lol.
With that said, the Ubuntu/Linux experience is not yet ready for, closer than a year ago certainly, the average or even power user who: uses their computer to do work and for entertainment and not as some kind of souped up amateur heath kit to while away the hours they prefer NOT spending in the physical company of other human beings.
An OS is a tool, a means to an end, and somewhat more for many, albeit an often underutilized one, and not a creed, religion, or political self-identification fetish object FOR MOST USERS – and isn’t it them we are talking about and trying to build a better solution and option for?
Last thing: WHY has OLPC opened discussions with MSFT and properly put Linux in it’s place, TANGENTIAL to the mission. Because it’s about the computer for the kid! NOT about Linux, and Linux may no longer be a necessary means to that end – and I think much of that truth is due to the fundamentalist absurdity of an unfortunately large part of the Linux community.
I hate microsoft
I hate ubuntu
And I hate MacOS too
@Adam,
You ask “WHY has OLPC opened discussions with MSFT and properly put Linux in it’s place[?]“. I would have thought that it was because Microsoft, ever mindful of the need to maintain “mind share” and preserve their monopoly, stuck their grubby fingers into the pie.
I feel very sorry for all those poor kids who will now grow up thinking that an OS needs to be a bloated, intrusive, unstable, bug-ridden virus magnet.
The emperor has no clothes. I’d say that’s the best way to describe the world of delusion that usually surrounds Linux. It’s quite sad that because someone likes an OS turns it into a holy grail and let that blind them, but it’s usually how it goes.
For what is worth, I used to be a Linux user. I admire and respect Linux developers for their hard work, but Linux can never achieve mainstream and can never be competitive at desktop level. There’s no one with the ability to unify the mess that Linux is (fans call it diversity, I don’t. Even when I used Linux, that always looked like unorganized chaos to me). No one to turn a vision into a reality, and there’s no money to be made with desktop Linux (let alone the consumer market). I think Mr. Shuttleworth knows that too.
You were right about Dell and Ubuntu, of course. One year later, and today, you can read something like this:
http://digg.com/linux_unix/Dell_sells_Ubuntu_But_it_s_NOT_recommended_says_this_CSR
The emperor has no clothes, but don’t expect hardcore fans to ever admit it.
This is such a funny article… Especially now it is the end of 2010 and Ubuntu hasn’t died nor does it show any signs of being moribund.
Just goes to show you can’t predict the future.
Are you Microsoft’s BITCH????
After reading your article it would appear so.