Ubuntu’s Death Rattle
Having just posted my thoughts on the Dell/Linux sham, it hit me… This must be the sound of Ubuntu’s death rattle.
Having failed to turn a profit year after year, Canonical/Ubuntu has put all of its remaining energy into this deal: from the website re-design with the focus on Dell, to the recent video/talk marketing efforts made by Mr. Shuttleworth.
I _would_ say that all the eggs have been placed into the same basket, but if you look at the past, you quickly realize the rest of the eggs have already been broken and this is a last effort attempt to save a sinking ship.
Since the beginning, Canonical/Ubuntu has been burning millions per year, without seeing any returns — even with a userbase of 2-6 million, and a deployment on 4-16 million systems. And this Dell move is supposed to turn things around?…
Do the numbers:
Dell’s expected sales are at 20,000 systems per year. Who and how many are going to shell out $65 for 30-days worth of support? Zero. Maybe, at best, less than 1%. Same logic applies to the more expensive, yearly, support contracts.
This Dell deal is a joke that’s going sell a handful of systems and net Canonical a few more contracts, relatively worth pennies. Pushing Linux on the average Joe [who is just going to ship the system back] will also backfire. I mean, who else is going to buy these systems? The fanboys that started this mess in the first place? Don’t make me laugh!
And for Ubuntu, after Dell, where is there to go from here but down?
It almost sounds as if this deal was set up to fail from the beginning. If Microsoft is behind this move, they have done a good job of pulling the strings. It’s a sad day today.
Author, it’s apparent you are not involved deeply in the open-source community.
The author is entitled to his opinion, certainly. I have to agree with some respondants that this blog entry has a real lack of actual evidence to back up the author’s claims, especially estimating the number of Dell Ubuntu PCs that will be sold and the number returned. These are opinions not based on a foundation of any data, of course.
What annoys me most is Adam Cassel’s posting. Dam, if you want to make a point, at least use some paragraph breaks so people can read it. If you want to use words like “tautologies,” be specific about what Ubuntu book you’re talking about so that others can see for themselves whether it is repetitious or not.
You complaints about Add/Remove and apt-get not working are ridiculous. I’ve never heard of anyone unable to get either of those functions to work properly on Ubuntu.
Finally, as an open source developer, I’m sure you understand the fundamental principles of open source development. No one puts out a piece of software and says “there, it’s perfect, that’s it.” Open source is all about putting yourself on the line and having others tear apart your coding and making better. So, I don’t understand your comment about a lack of humility and respect for one’s rivals. Try actually contributing to Launchpad.
Frankly, when I see a posting that goes on and on in some kind of “stream of consciousness” format, I am not impressed. I’m sure you wanted to impress people, right?
Obviously the author hasn’t heard of a tax write-off, and therefore has no business sense. Ubuntu will continue to exist because it is a quality Linux distribution. If Mr. Shuttleworth decides to pull the plug on the funding, the open source community will keep the ball rolling with all it’s volunteers.
That being said, I don’t see Dell selling a whole lot systems and support agreements with Ubuntu. Linux is still for us nerds and hackers. Although the kernel itself is a piece of mastery, Linux applications are unfamiliar and uncomfortable for most MS users. We all know that but hate to admit it.
However, Linux is soooo cool and I am VERY proud to be a part of the user base.
It seems someone is eager to see Ubuntu fail.
The comments have really picked up, while the logic and reasoning skills have completely fallen off a cliff… A quality vs. quantity type of effect.
I would like to respond individually, but most of these comments have no substance at all…
So far:
1) I should not post on a blog because I have not stated that I have a business degree.
2) My logical arguments are not valid because there is a “.NET” in “DeveloperSide.NET”.
3) And I must be a Microsoft employee because I don’t take a positive view on everything Linux related.
The Ubuntu family is the most popular desktop Linux distro in the world will it die? No way. Will Canonical ever drop it? Who knows, one thing that is known is that it will live on under a new name or as a community-supported project. The real thing your post shows is your deep hate for anything that is successful. OK most of us in the Linux community think that Microsoft can be substituted for any reference to hell, the underworld or haites in any religion or mythology ever practiced or written. Canonical / Ubuntu has been the right product at the rite time to fuel the movement of Linux to the desktop it will continue to flourish in one form or another, however I would bet it is un it’s current state.
You’re an idiot if you think Canonical/Ubuntu is going anywhere but up.
When are people going to wake up and smell the coffee. Linux is dying….fast on the vine. The general population that uses microsoft products exclusively, does not have the attention span, nor the inclination to try anything new as far as OSes are concerned. If requires anything more than the curiosity of a 4-year old child, then most people would just as soon complain about Microsoft rather than get up off their collective duffs and take responsibility and try something different.
“I would like to respond individually, but most of these comments have no substance at all…”
And this article does?
No one else logic matter but yours?
No one else logic matter but yours?
How do I respond to “This is FUD. You lose!”. How do you even call that “logic”, or a well formed “argument”? There is nothing behind it.
I’ve provided a good foundation for my statements and arguments, backed with reason, history, facts.
I always welcome any sensible feedback… But most of these comments revolve around hypocrisy and attempting to calm one another’s fears that what I have said is not true.
It would have been a better article if you had stated 1) you don’t have a business degree. 2) YOU have a vested interest in M$ continued monopoly.
You have to be more transparent. Transparency goes a long way. You are a Windows developer. Go figure…
Here is one of many of your dumb statements.
“Dell’s expected sales are at 20,000 systems per year.”
As of April 30, 2007, there were 582 Sam’s Clubs in the United States.
As of April 30, 2007, there were 2,307 Wal-Mart Supercenters in the United States. That will equal = 2889 Dell/Ubuntu outlets. That mean each outlet must sell at least 7 units for the year. One every 60 days.
Now doesn’t that make your statement a little dumb?
Do you need me to rewrite the article?
Honestly author, you sound very silly. You say that Dell will sell 20,000 to unsuspecting buyers who will then return half. You call that “backed with reason, history, facts.?”
Lets see a quote from Dell:
Quote: “For advanced users and tech enthusiasts, we’re happy to offer…”
First of all, it hardly sounds like they are trying to push it on unsuspecting Joe blows…they even have it on the same page as FreeDOS. Dell has offered FreeDOS for awhile and the sky didn’t fall then. I am 100% sure that if you call to order one of those machines, they will say something like “Do you know what Ubuntu is? Do you understand that you will not get Microsoft Windows?” and so forth, just like they would for a FreeDOS machine.
Second of all, you underestimate the support world. The company I work for pays hundreds of dollars per month per machine for Redhat. I’d bet you would think that was pretty silly, but then again, you aren’t running an entire company on Linux….are you?
Lastly, you say that Linux isn’t being pushed on people when they should just use what works. Well, one day I “seen” Linux somewhere. I had heard it mentioned, but didn’t know what it was. I tried it, like it, and now I make my living on it. No one is trying to force people to use it. But letting people know about it and try it is a good thing. I would not have discovered it otherwise. I never felt Linux was pushed on me. However, when I used Windows, I did feel that way.
What are you talking about? What does a business degree, or any degree, have to do with anything? This is not even worth a response.
You’re also stating that I have a vested interest in the success of Microsoft? Apache, PHP, MySQL, Perl, and so on, must also have that same interest since that is what I deal with on the main site.
About the 20,000 figure… You should contact Dell about their “dumb” statement if you have such a problem with it. I’m sure that figure is a result of something more than just a guess.
And what does Wal-Mart have to do with this? Those Dells are not coming with a Ubuntu option. The Wal-Mart crowd is not the type that would appreciate Linux, or be able to use it.
Another dumb statement.
“The Wal-Mart crowd is not the type that would appreciate Linux, or be able to use it.”
“Apache, PHP, MySQL, Perl, and so on, must also have that same interest since that is what I deal with”
Are you talking about WAMP?
It looks like you have a endless supply.
layta ; -)
“For advanced users and tech enthusiasts, we’re happy to offer…†First of all, it hardly sounds like they are trying to push it on unsuspecting Joe blows…
I understand, and I also understand that people that have no reason to use Linux, nor are able to use it, will wind up there anyways.
I am 100% sure that if you call to order one of those machines, they will say something like “Do you know what Ubuntu is? Do you understand that you will not get Microsoft Windows?†and so forth…
Maybe. But that won’t stop them.
Second of all, you underestimate the support world. The company I work for pays hundreds of dollars per month per machine for Redhat.
And Ubuntu is Red Hat now? Canonical/Ubuntu’s original goal was to make money off desktop support for home users, then they switched their goal to the server-side, and about two weeks after that, realizing they had no chance of going up against Red Hat [for so many different reasons], started to talk about something between the desktop and server market. Now I don’t even know where they stand, and neither do they.
If you can’t make money with 4-6 million users, and Dell can’t even help you… You are doing something wrong — or there is no market for you.
I tried it, like it, and now I make my living on it.
And for one of you there are a hundred that had the opposite reaction.
No one is trying to force people to use it.
Now thats just blind.
Author, You are one of those folks going around saying there is still WMDes, we just haven’t found it yet…
You are in the minority.
Author, just one small question. According to your expert analysis, Debian, Slackware, BSD should be dead by now. Care to explain that?
Ubuntu is really not that hard to use. I think it’s easier to use for the average “Joe Blow” then Windows is.
Author, just one small question. According to your expert analysis, Debian, Slackware, BSD should be dead by now. Care to explain that?
No one is saying Ubuntu is just going to go “puff” and disappear into thin air. The natural course will be a loss of [Canonical/Shuttleworth] funding, [Canonical] developers, users, etc… It will still exist, and another new distribution will take its place. It will simply no longer be the “darling.”
Ubuntu is nothing new, or extraordinary, from any perspective — financial or community-wise. Many other distributions have failed with larger backing, trying to capitalize the desktop market…
The desktop market is the ONLY thing Ubuntu has left, all other venues [server-side, etc...] have been expended.
I’ll start out by confessing I am not a software engineer, and don’t have a degree in economics. I would best be characterized as a user who is sick enough of Windows to want to have more competition in the marketplace- enough to put up with the bugs that linux has. I’ve been using Suse Linux for about two years now, on a dual-boot system.
Frankly, until this year, I would agree that Linux was not ready for the average user. Things are different now. I don’t know if Novell-Suse has a future; they have made several decisions that look pretty dumb to me (speaking as a non-MBA), I don’t know if Ubuntu will make it or not. Mandrake was right up there with Suse and RedHat, but now they are an also ran (in spite of the fact that I tried the new live CD and this was the first linux OS I tried that ran in 3-D mode first try on my ATI video). What I do know is that I am typing this on Kubuntu, and it ran first time, out of the box without any tweaking at all.
I have a friend who recently installed Ubuntu on his tired old XP laptop, and it not only ran first time, including his wireless connection, but he reported that it is visibly faster than it was under XP.
Ubuntu may live or die. Personally, I think freespire/ubuntu is the version most likely to make it in the retail world, because the average Joe won’t worry about whether his codecs are open source or proprietary, as long as his DVD will play. I think, and hope, Linux will grow. M$ has no competition on the desktop (Mac OS is great, but it is only alive due to the infusion of cash it received from M$ and is in a cul-de-sac competitively speaking). M$ badly needs a serious competitor to force it to stop releasing buggy software– rather like General Motors in the 1980’s, when GM thought it could sell junk just by slapping a “chevy” label on it. Sorry, Chevy owners, but if you were around in the 1980’s you know what I mean.
No one is saying Ubuntu is just going to go “puff†and disappear into thin air. The natural course will be a loss of [Canonical/Shuttleworth] funding, [Canonical] developers, users, etc… It will still exist, and another new distribution will take its place. It will simply no longer be the “darling.â€
Ubuntu is nothing new, or extraordinary, from any perspective — financial or community-wise. Many other distributions have failed with larger backing, trying to capitalize the desktop market…
What, Ubuntu is not on a “death rattle” any more? Wow that was a quick U turn. Ubuntu is being preloaded by a first tier OEM across a wide range of it’s desktop and laptops. That IS new and extraordinary. Of course that doesn’t mean that other distros won’t also thrive. Because Dell is preloading Linux across it’s range, the Linux drivers, and certification provided will boost other Linuxes on Dell as well. What that means is that Microsoft’s monopoly stranglehold on OEMs that prevents them from preloading or bundling other vendor’s products is breaking. The ability to lock in OEMs and craft exclusive contracts that they exclude products competing with Microsoft is the thing that established and maintains Microsoft’s desktop and office suite monopoly. If this falls, then Microsoft’s monopoly will too. This is the earth shaking significance of preloading Ubuntu (and possibly OpenOffice, Firefox etc) on Dell – cracks in Microsoft’s monopoly leverage. Also, having Dell certify Linux across their range means that hardware suppliers who don’t supply Linux drivers will be excluded or be at a severe disadvantage as Dell suppliers – and even more so if other OEMs follow suit. This is also a key change. Microsoft relies mainly on third party driver and application support to give it an advantage over other platforms. If you can run all third party Windows applications and use all Windows hardware on Linux, then Windows would only sell if given away free, and even then, only if the person using it is stupid enough to put up with the virus/worm vulnerability and instability of Windows. If third party companies produce drivers and applications for other platforms as well, Microsoft’s market dominance is going to crumble fast.
What, Ubuntu is not on a “death rattle†any more? Wow that was a quick U turn.
Either everything I say and type has a flare for the dramatic, or should be taken completely at face value… That does not leave me much room to navigate.
I never said Ubuntu will vaporize. Just that it has run its course.
Ubuntu is being preloaded by a first tier OEM across a wide range of it’s desktop and laptops. That IS new and extraordinary.
We must be living in different worlds… A “wide range of desktops and laptops.” Right! You must also have missed the part where Dell claims that they expect to sell less than 1% of their systems, in volume, with Ubuntu.
What that means is that Microsoft’s monopoly stranglehold on OEMs that prevents them from preloading or bundling other vendor’s products is breaking.
No, its actually getting stronger. And the only “earth shaking significance” here is that this Dell/Linux attempt has failed before it even launched.
If you can run all third party Windows applications and use all Windows hardware on Linux…
Let us know when that happens.
…Microsoft’s market dominance is going to crumble fast.
Is that before or after the headlines read: “Linux kills Dell, then self. Ubuntu behind ploy.”
The support forums are already filling up with people claiming that “iTunes will not install, computer says VBScript not installed”, “I don’t know much about anything, but I need to know how I can develop Windows applications on this Linux thing?”, “My games, why won’t they work?”.
Dear admin, you know nothing and your arguments came out of your arse one saturday night because you had eaten too much green curry and hot tea. once the pain had set in you had to get the cr@p out of you and decided the best way was to sht all over the internet.
But in the end the whole reason you abused yourself was because you felt lonely and poor soulless human being who likes to play rubix cubes and world of warcraft. which in turn has emulsified your brain into a huge great big hating engien of which you have no escape.
Hey your right, making stuff up does make me feel better. but it doesn’t make it the truth. one thing your blogs (all of them) really miss. why don’t you sight things, why do you only answer argumnets you can defend and not arguments that utterly destroy your arguments? could it be that your bias and blind?
Oh well I’ll spread my pitty over this tiny corner of the internet and hope you get some surgery, or a SUV which ever makes you feel more like a man.
Man, I guess you can’t say anything bad about Ubuntu.
I think the deal with Dell is more of a marketing strategy. They will get some press in PC mags, Wired and maybe some mainstream news outlets like WSJ or Time. I first heard about Linux through Time.
I’d expect most if not all the Dell/Ubuntu offerings to be sold to people who are already using GNU/Linux. It’s not really worth it for the ‘average user’. It’s still cheaper to buy a Dell preloaded with Vista and then install Ubuntu, rather then buying Ubuntu/Dell and having to buy a full version of Vista later.
To the people saying Canonical will make their money from selling support to businesses, you need to get your head out of your ass. RHEL and SLED are better products then Feisty of Dapper LTS. Novell and Red Hat have more employees and are focused on the enterprise market. Canonical is way, way behind.
I think the deal with Dell is more of a marketing strategy. They will get some press in PC mags, Wired and maybe some mainstream news outlets like WSJ or Time.
Now that is an excellent point! But it can [and in my opinion *will*] backfire if people start sending the systems back because they are used to Windows and Windows Apps… Just think of the field day Microsoft could have with this. Not to mention the take other OEMs would develop on Linux.
I’d expect most if not all the Dell/Ubuntu offerings to be sold to people who are already using GNU/Linux.
I would too, but most of the current Linux users would never buy one of these systems in the first place, for many different reasons: like to build system themselves, need more options, rather pay $10 more to get Vista license and load another Linux distribution, and so on and on…
As a matter of fact, I think the only people we have left to purchase one of these systems is the “want to try this cool thing called Linux” type and maybe the average joe that has no idea of what Windows or Linux is… And we know what a disaster that would be. Sure, 1 in a 100 might like it for his use, but its the other 99 that will spell doom for Linux, Ubuntu, and to some extent Dell.
I don’t believe that the Joe Does you are constantly talking about are actually buying their computers themselves. Judging from my own personal experience, those people usually have some geek among their relatives which they consult before purchase (and this poor guy often has to clean out their malware-infested Windows machines). I’m pretty sure many Ubuntu boxes will be sold to those whose personal geek isn’t willing to support Windows anymore. But then, I’m from Europe, so maybe things are different in the US – which would be another reason against launching this campaign in the states instead of Europe.
Either everything I say and type has a flare for the dramatic, or should be taken completely at face value. Make up your mind, please. Hint: I never said Ubuntu will vaporize. Just that it has run its course.
Let me get this straight – Ubuntu has been going strong for many years without OEM preloading. Now that a first tier OEM has decided to preload it in a wide range of it’s PCs, that is not a positive thing for Ubuntu, but it’s “death rattle” and now you say it has run it’s course. That is convoluted logic by any standard – that kind that Microsoft pays FUDsters to put out.
We must be living in different worlds… A “wide range of desktops and laptops.†Right! You must also have missed the part where Dell claims that they expect to sell less than 1% of their systems, in volume, with Ubuntu.
You must have trouble understanding English. “A wide range” means that a large number of models, not the number sold. The thing that is significant here is that these models will be Linux compatible, which means that Dell will have to ensure that the chipset, hardware and peripheral suppliers to Dell will have to supply both Windows and Linux drivers or take a hike. That is the significance. As for the numbers sold, many who use Linux will buy the same Linux compatible hardware with FreeDOS and preload their own favorite Linux distro or buy the same Linux compatible PC Windows, and dual boot it with Ubuntu. Also supporting Linux certification will boost Dell’s Windows sales as well. This is because many companies (like the one I work for) who use mostly Windows but have Linux in their business (that is about 78% of all companies by the way) have policies that require that hardware puchased must be compatible with both Linux and Windows compatible, in order to allow interoperability and redeployment. The company I work for used to buy from Dell, but switched suppliers because Dell was a Windows shop as far as most of it’s range is concerned. It is not a question of Dell losing 5% of sales because of lack of support of Linux, it is Dell losing 100% of it’s sales (ie. including Dell’s Windows sales) because my company prefers a one stop shop, and redeployability for it’s hardware.
No, its actually getting stronger.
No, having Dell dare ignore threats to “beat Dell over the head” over preloading competing software means Microsoft is getting weaker, not stronger. By the way, Microsoft’s recent higher than ever revenue is boosted by selling assets in an attempt to keep it’s stock price up – it’s cash pile is rapidly dwindling as a result. http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/309852_software02.html . It’s cash pile has dropped from $64.4 billion in 2004 to $28.8 billion now. This doesn’t mean that Microsoft isn’t hugely profitable – monopolies always are because they can charge the customer whatever they want, but the effect losing it’s monopoly will have on Microsoft is obvious. This is why the cracks in Microsoft’s monopoly enforcement we are seeing is so significant.
And the only “earth shaking significance†here is that this Dell/Linux attempt has failed before it even launched…..Is that before or after the headlines read: “Linux kills Dell, then self.
Hmmm. you are showing your agenda. It seems you have already decreed that the Dell preloading Linux is going to be a failure. I hope Michael Dell has more business savvy than you – but then again he is a successful businessman, unlike you.
If you can run all third party Windows applications and use all Windows hardware on Linux…….The support forums are already filling up with people claiming that “iTunes will not install, computer says VBScript not installedâ€, “I don’t know much about anything, but I need to know how I can develop Windows applications on this Linux thing?â€, “My games, why won’t they work?â€.
Well actually if you have an AMD or Intel CPU that supports hardware virtualisation, you can run Windows on Ubuntu right now. https://help.ubuntu.com/community/KVM . I would’t recommend virtualisation for games though because it implements DirectX in software. The trend for games is to buy consoles like Wii, PS3 or XBox360 rather than PCs. However that is not the point I am making. iTunes and most software is not produced by Microsoft. The same is true for hardware drivers. These companies have no particular incentive to exclude non-Microsoft operating systems, other than the fact that Microsoft has a monopoly with near 95% of the desktop market. As you correctly indicate, Microsoft relies heavily on the fact that it has a monopoly to persuade these companied to exclude competitors. It follows that if Microsoft’s monopoly starts to crack, then these companies will port their products to the competing platforms, and that undermines the only thing that keeps the monopoly in place. It follows that if Microsoft’s monopoly cracks, then the collapse will be rapid and spectacular. Microsoft knows this well. That is why so much of Microsoft’s efforts go into stamping out any form of competition no matter how trivial it might seem (like the 1% of Dell’s PCs you claim Dell is expecting to sell). As I said before, the fact that a first tier OEM is daring to sell a competing product is earthshaking news and if it continues and spreads will lead to the collapse of Microsoft’s monopoly.
I’m pretty sure many Ubuntu boxes will be sold to those whose personal geek isn’t willing to support Windows anymore.
In that case, those “geek” friends/relatives better move in because support will be required 24/7. Again, this is just another example of someone “pushing” Linux.
The Windows challenged individuals will not have an easier time on Ubuntu.
Like the author, I am wondering just who is going to buy those Dell Linux systems. If some of them happen to be ordinary computer illiterate or semi-literate Joe Public, then they have my sympathy.
Linux is simply not yet ready for the Desktop and ordinary users yet. Its heading in the right direction, but at a snails pace. I will probably eb dead before it happens. Unfortunately Linux suffers from being written by geeks who write primarily to please themselves and seem to have little sympathy for the user who wants to actually use the system without having to understand how it works. That is of course their right, but the end result is the same. Dont expect to be able to right click on a disk volume within Gnome or KDE and select “format” for the forseeable future. For now its the command line folks, and lets hope you can remember the laundry list of options. Let me see, is it mkextfs -r …. n, sorry cant remember. Im sure an hour or two on the forums will get me there.
Actually I am amazed that oridnary people are able to use Windows successfully. I barely can and i have been in IT all my life. I suspect many people simply end up using their PC a s a paperweight or a status symbol, or a games machine (dont bother with Linux for that one).
As to Linux companies/distros going bust/fading away, the more the better as far as i am concerned. The rediculous diversity is of no use and causes immense damage to Linux as a whole. We dont want 1000 distros none of which works properly, but simply one that does. Since Ubuntu seems to be one of the better distros, and one which has very large community support, Im hoping it wins out and the others go bust. But it does not matter which so long as their ends up being one.
I am a great hater of Microsoft and all it stands for, and a great proponent of the free software / open source community, but like the author I like to be a realist as much as possible.
As to the authors comment re the death rattle, I cannot really comment as I do not have enough info to be sure, but I would not be at all surprised to see Cannonical to pull the plug at some future time. I fail to understand how any organisation can make a living out of selling software support on a large scale – it seems to be only a niche market.
The Ubuntu web site looks good. Thats what the web is really all about – lots of pretty pictures. This one sure is pretty.
You’re taking the wrong point of view here. It’s not about the users, it’s about the one providing the support, In the case of Ubuntu, he has to give them one introductory weekend where they get used to doing their tasks, and if any problems with software or hardware show up, he will fix it right there. But that’s it, as long as those people stick to their usual routines (which most of them do), he’s done with his job. In the case of Windows, he can be sure to get at least one call per year to repair a virus-infected or for some other reason incredibly bloated install because those people just don’t know how to stay away from this stuff. And even with Windows there will be occasional calls because of trivial issues, e.g. when the screen is “suddenly smaller’ and it turns out they somehow lowered the resolution.
In that case, those “geek†friends/relatives better move in because support will be required 24/7. Again, this is just another example of someone “pushing†Linux.
Again you show your ignorance. Linux requires a lot less maintenance than Windows – no anti-virus and anti-malware installation and updates, no need to go out to a shop purchase and install shrinkwrapped applications from CDs, or to manually download and install them from the internet like Windows, and no need to reinstall when Windows becomes unstable. In Ubuntu install is one click using APT and non-free repositories like Automatix and Linspire’s click n run.
The main difficulties with Linux for the newbie are 1) finding compatible hardware, and 2) installation of the OS. Dell’s preload, and certification of hardware solves both these issues. The only issue remaining is when you buy non Dell hardware add-ons. However a newbie would probably require a geek for this anyway. Using Linux is as easy as using Windows.
Windows has not been a problem since the Windows98 days for most people.
Right now, for every 1 home PC with Linux out there, there are probably over 50-100 running Windows. If the numbers were switched, and people used Linux for everything they use Windows, you can bet that Linux would look worse than the worst OS Microsoft could have possible designed/developed.
You must have trouble understanding English. “A wide range†means that a large number of models, not the number sold.
You should read slower, you will understand better that way.
As I said before, the fact that a first tier OEM is daring to sell a competing product is earthshaking news and if it continues and spreads will lead to the collapse of Microsoft’s monopoly.
Daring? The only reason they are doing so is to save face from the response received on IdeaStorm. They tried to backpedal out of it twice so far.
By the way, Microsoft’s recent higher than ever revenue is boosted by selling assets in an attempt to keep it’s stock price up – it’s cash pile is rapidly dwindling as a result.
Again, read slower. They went from $60 billion in cash to $30 billion through stock buybacks, dividends, and purchasing other companies. Not because their monopoly is cracking.
The author likes to speak like he is some sort of person above the fanboys and the elitist linux users, but he himself IS ONE.
I got tired of Windows. I got tired of “windows rot”. I got tired of adware. I got tired of it all. So, I tried all sorts of Linux distros. I tried Suse, Red Hat, Madriva, Mandrake, PHLAK, etc. NOTHING seemed to work for me.
Then, I tried Ubuntu on my desktop. I used it for a little bit, and that was it. I’d use it every now and then, but it wasn’t my main system.
Eventually, I bought a laptop, and I ONLY RUN UBUNTU ON IT. I have NO REASON for Windows. At all. In fact, my laptop came with a free upgrade to Vista, and I wont have anything to do with it. A new computer was the push I needed to get started. These dell machines can be the fire starter for MANY above average users who have the spark, but not the flame.
Ubuntu has the community to support Linux newbies. Whenever i had ANY sort of problem, i could EASILY SEARCH FOR IT ON THE UBUNTU FORUMS AND FIND AN ANSWER. I’ve NEVER had to create my own thread because I couldn’t find the right answers.
So now, I read this article, and I think to myself, “wow, I wasn’t a linux user before, I must be a complete dumb “. Because you know what? That’s the message I get from reading this blog. It’s the message that if you don’t use Linux, you’re just an “average joe” who doesn’t know .
Let me tell you, that there are PLENTY of windows users who are above average, but haven’t used linux. This is their CHANCE TO GET INVOLVED.
They have the resources to find the answers to their questions. They have a nice GUI. They have a strong and healthy community you can’t find with any other OS.
So, author, you know what? You can take your elitism and shove it up your ass. Linux is awesome, and I would have NEVER found it if it wasn’t for Ubuntu. The way you infer that I’m some sort of moron for not being a Linux elitist really es me off. Give me a ing break.
Ubuntu isn’t for the “average joe”, its for the “somewhat above average joe”. This kind of arrogant linux user attitude is what is preventing linux from taking off, not profits or anything else.
There is no “linux HQ”, there is no “linux redmond”. The very core of linux is extremely unique in every way. So, stop comparing it to all sorts of unrelated and stop sounding like a paumpus .
So, author, you know what? You can take your elitism and shove it up your ass… The way you infer that I’m some sort of moron for not being a Linux elitist really es me off… Ubuntu isn’t for the “average joeâ€, its for the “somewhat above average joeâ€.
I have no idea what you are talking about.
Oh, this is just dreadful…the terrible news about all that death and rattling, and now all this disagreement and arguing. My eyes are bleeding.
I just installed Ubuntu…just in time to watch it die! I have such lousy luck.
Once I bought this sweet Italian car, hoping it would stand up to what at the time was the de facto monopoly of the American auto industry. Well…it died, and with a rattle too! My neighbor’s Pinto just chugged on.
Now, I’ve got this miserable fanboy-infested Ubuntu on my computer, and it’s going to die and rattle as well. I should have bought a Chevy, lo those many years ago, and I should have stuck with Windows.
I so desperately wanted Linux to succeed, to be popular, to kick that nasty Bill Gates’ ass, but now I feel foolish. What a waste of time, and misplaced effort.
Resistance is futile, an alternative is an illusion. With the money Microsoft pours into R&D, how could I have thought that Linux in general, and Ubuntu in particular could compare.
The shame of self-deception is nearly overwhelming – the insincere feeling of refreshing variety, the dishonest rush of Freedom, the imagined ability to work in a manner I choose and even design, the illusion of efficiency and productivity. All…lies. I just want to die.
Boy, suddenly I miss Windows – wonder if I’ve still got that CD, and if they’ll let me activate it again, and if I’ll ever enjoy that genuine advantage and delight in that experience, see those glorious vistas…
You sounds like a M$ fanboy, are you?
Francesco… I love you. Have my digibabies.
Silly admin. It looks to me like all you’re doing is re-quoting the things that were already said in the articles you took time to reference at the beginning of your post.
And in all your comments, you never make an educated argument… You merely re-hash what you’ve already said.
Meanwhile, point after point have been made to prove you wrong, all of which you’ve completely ignored. Instead of being rational and intelligent about this matter, you’ve let others do the thinking and now you’re crying wolf from the rooftops.
The fact is, even if Ubuntu took 10 years to catch on, to become a considered option for the world desktop market, Mr. Shuttleworth would still have only spent about $200-$400 million dollars. He’s a billionaire, sir, and even though that’s a HUGE sum of money, if he really believes the way he says he does, in the “humanity towards others” and the freedom of the Ubuntu project, then there’s no reason for him to stop. Sure, he’d be losing money, but he’s got plenty to lose.
And yes, maybe in the next 10 years Ubuntu will wither away and die. It’s a possibility. Just like how Yellow Dog used to be a semi-big distro, but nowdays is practically unheard of. But at the same time… Who is to say that in the next 10 years Microsoft will still be the leader of the computing world? Who’s to say they won’t make a moronic decision and get screwed by the justice system? Who’s to say Apple won’t make a big break? Who’s to say Linux won’t reach more users and more desktop systems and take a 5 or 10% desktop margin? Who’s to say Ubuntu and Canonical won’t design something in the next 10 years that completely changes the way mankind thinks about computing?
I mean… Chances are in 10 years Microsoft will still have the majority of desktop systems, even if that majority would have dropped slightly. Mac will still be a major competitor, as it always has been. But who are we to say that a simple contract deal with Dell is going to spell the absolute end of Ubuntu linux? Or that Ubuntu has already passed its prime?
I must say, it’s the most preposterous thing I’ve ever heard.
Considering the idea that Ubuntu has already done so amazingly well WITHOUT a contract with Dell, even if the Dell/Ubuntu contract falls through, even if ALL the desktops and laptops are returned to Dell, the worst that will happen is that Microsoft will claim it as a victory, and the few people who actually give a damn and pay attention to this kind of stuff will say that Ubuntu is worse than Windows Vista. But two years later ($40 million, a drop in the bucket), who, other than a scant few, will remember? The Ubuntu community will remember, and a few Windows activists. The Ubuntu community will still be going strong, because they know the truth about Ubuntu, and the Windows activists… Well they never liked Linux in the first place.
This doesn’t spell the end, nor even the peak, of Ubuntu. This deal with Dell could potentially lead to much greater things. Let’s leave it at that, and see where it takes us.
Silly admin. It looks to me like all you’re doing is re-quoting the things that were already said in the articles you took time to reference at the beginning of your post.
And in all your comments, you never make an educated argument… You merely re-hash what you’ve already said.
Meanwhile, point after point have been made to prove you wrong, all of which you’ve completely ignored. Instead of being rational and intelligent about this matter, you’ve let others do the thinking and now you’re crying wolf from the rooftops.
I have the exact same take on most of the comments made so far.
To convince the “average joe” to use any OS, it will need to be made more appealing than alternatives; in ease of operation, usability of hardware and availability of applications that those people want; not just the cost factor.
Regardless of who makes the distribution.
Regardless of which OEM bundles it.
So the author shows valid points – that a COMMERCIAL benefit from any OS is highly dependent on whether the customer will be happy with what is offered to him.
So rather than attacking the message, attack the root cause. It would seem to be the more intelligent thing to do.
As to the “Ubuntu will survive, as Gentoo Linux has, and another distribution will become the darling”, in 25 years of working within the IT industry (mainframes to pc’s, PDP to Vista, Unix and just about everything else): the only constant in life is change – this is very evident in the iT sector!
Firstly, your “history” of Ubuntu/Canonical is a little whacked.
Canonical NEVER said that it was going after the desktop market, then the server market, then something in between. That’s just ONE of your re-writes of history, and a blatant lack of knowledge of the subject.
I, for one, have been negative towards the Dell/Ubuntu deal, not seeing how it could be sold successfully, but I’m no Michael Dell or Mark Shuttleworth.
Canonical has been looking for the SERVER market all along, and if you think ONE Linux company in the server market excludes the inclusion of ANY other Linux company you have rocks in your head. Canonical have just gone about it in a different way, gaining mindshare through the desktop, knowing full well that the money was to be made in the SERVER market. The desktop has always been a way of leveraging Ubuntu into the server market, as far as Mark and Canonical are concerned.
Canonical made a deal with Linspire to provide CnR with Ubuntu, for the desktop user. In making that deal, Mark SAID that Canonical wanted server share as its way of making money from Ubuntu.
Your statements and theories use your own opinions as a basis for speculation. You ask questions and then answer them yourself as if your opinions are fact. There may be some truth in your “conclusions” but your reasoning is thin, to say the least. Especially since you don’t even know what Canonical is after with the desktop.
Canonical NEVER said that it was going after the desktop market, then the server market, then something in between. That’s just ONE of your re-writes of history, and a blatant lack of knowledge of the subject.
They never said anything about anything, nor could their actions be interpreted? Perhaps you should do a little more digging.
The desktop has always been a way of leveraging Ubuntu into the server market, as far as Mark and Canonical are concerned.
You are stating the obvious.
Canonical has been looking for the SERVER market all along, and if you think ONE Linux company in the server market excludes the inclusion of ANY other Linux company you have rocks in your head.
Why would I think that? What I do think is the barriers to the server market are a bit too high for Ubuntu and Canonical.
If I had 1.2 billion dollars to burn, I could spend $100,000 every month, or about $3,300 everyday, which not everybody earns in a month. Money for drinking or gambling. I would have other billions invested elsewhere, so this money would be spent in my pet project. If it does not have to make a profit, then why bother?
Each person lives life according to his/her own special circumstances. Mr. Shuttleworth decided to make a splash in the software industry, and did the right thing. He is happier this way than he would be if he were drinking, gambling or playing golf all day. If he had an expensive lover he might spend even more than with Ubuntu.
This author wrote this because he has nothing better to do with his time. Either he has a narrow view of the world, or somebody is paying him to write stupid columns.
That being said, I don’t see Dell selling a whole lot systems and support agreements with Ubuntu. Linux is still for us nerds and hackers. Although the kernel itself is a piece of mastery, Linux applications are unfamiliar and uncomfortable for most MS users. We all know that but hate to admit it.
There is an immediate solution to the Windows-only application dilemma for those who want to migrate to GNU/Linux: run Windows XP on a virtual machine under a GNU/Linux distribution as long as necessary. In this way, one can have the benefits of both OSs without having to reboot the PC. It is a very easy situation, without extra immediate spending. Sweet!
The author said:
Dell’s expected sales are at 20,000 systems per year. Who and how many are going to shell out $65 for 30-days worth of support? Zero. Maybe, at best, less than 1%. Same logic applies to the more expensive, yearly, support contracts.
I have seen Windows friends predicting sales of 90 million or more Windows Vista licenses in 2007. From what we know, the actual number will be 40 million or less.
Dell´s expectations, OTOH, may be surpassed, and end up being 200,000, or 1,000,000 Ubuntu GNU/Linux machines. Even without support, that will compensate for the lack of sales of Vista machines.
As for Canonical, the Ubuntu distributor, the reward will be a tremendous popularity and prestige for quality that will open door to any kind of commercial initiative for Mr. Shuttleworth to tap. That is how the open-source community members survive, and their number is growing: recognition results in contracts, discounts, invitations, all sorts of little things that keep them doing more of it. Maybe the author does not understand that are alternative ways of having a life, not only restricting their activities to the pursuit of money.
admin: Again, read slower. They went from $60 billion in cash to $30 billion through stock buybacks, dividends, and purchasing other companies. Not because their monopoly is cracking.
They say a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, and you certainly do seem to have little knowledge!
The reason for the stock buyback is to keep Microsoft’s stock price from falling (and Bill Gates and Steve Balmers retirement fund up). The plain fact of the matter is that the stock price is not rising significantly over this period, but real tangible assets money is being emptied. This means the total asset value of Microsoft is dropping rapidly. What is more, the higher than ever revenues reported by Microsoft for the last quarter includes the revenue from the sales of assets that have been used to buy back it’s stock. Therefore, the higher than ever revenue reported by Microsoft for the last quarter in order to talk up stock price has more to do with creative accounting than Vista sales.
You are welcome to believe that the massive stock buybacks and dividend payouts are nothing more than Microsoft coverups perpetrated by Bill Gates himself and have nothing to do with shareholder or fed demands.